Much of what makes people stop playing guitar is expectations. I would suggest you avoid the "How good will I be in a year" thinking. Playing an instrument is a journey that is accomplished at your body's own pace. You can't go any faster than your body will allow. If you put in 40 minutes a day, you will be a much better guitar player. That is pretty straight forward, but focusing on where you will be in a year is just a deflating tease. You willl be, what you will be,no matter how much you thrash your self to chase the illusive "what I should be by now". That pitfall is the end of many aspiring guitarist.